MeaningfulUse Attestations Double in December

A few weeks ago I reported on the type of growth I expect on the number of Meaningful Use attestations.  The December data is now available from data.gov.  I would expect about 11,500 attestations based on previous experience given the progression thus far:

Month	Attestations
4	506
5	812
6	1045
7	1461
8	2268
9	3774
10	5754
11	7341
12	????

What we actually saw was 14634, nearly twice what we saw in November.  There are two things that could be happening here.  The first of these is what I call the "deadline effect".  When you have a deadline, the number of things that occur just before the deadline goes up dramatically.  For example, when you look at the number of transcriptions signed just before shift changes, you often see a big spike over the normal load.  Given the desire to attest to and record revenue for 2011, it is quite possible that the spike in December attestations is simply due to the year-end deadline.

The other possibility is that we are reaching a point where it has become simpler for people to testify, and so attestations are accelerating even further.  January will be a good test.  If the number of attestations in January shows a slowing of the rate of increase, then we have a blip.

   Keith