A Bet on Standards for the next round of Certification

It's been pretty clear that ONC is putting its money behind FHIR, and we know that 21st Centrury Cures will require new certification requirements, and are pretty much certain that (based on the last round of regulation), that a standard for APIs is going to be specified.

I see two choices: FHIR DSTU2 with Argonaut, or FHIR R4 with US Core, either of these with SMART on FHIR.  Having read through the new US Core over the last week (for the HL7 ballot cycle), it's pretty clear it essentially replaces most of what was found in the original Argonaut specifications.

So, I'm placing my bets on FHIR R4 with US Core and SMART on FHIR.

What I'm NOT placing bets on is when the regulation is actually going to show up.  HHS has some appropriations already, and ONC is still moving some things forward, but OMB is on furlough and the Federal Register site is non-operational, and NIST has also shut down (not that they are essential for publishing the rule, only afterwards in implementing it).

Given the current situation, I'd rather the rule had showed up on December 24th.

   Keith