I’m not, at present, concerned for my own health at this time in attending HIMSS 20, though I will miss my annual spate of hugs at this event, I expect. I’m healthy, if I get it, I will likely survive. Others in Florida I might want to see are more vulnerable, I have to consider the advisability of family visits.
What does concerns me most is the impact on my household and community should I get infected. My wife works in the town library, which serves a lot of vulnerable populations. I live in a very small town, 300+ homes, 3000+ people. I’m probably one of the most frequent travelers in contact with thousands of people on a monthly basis in this town, I could be the key link. There are people living in my home, and with whom my adult children have contact with who are quite vulnerable.
Orlando is a huge tourism vector. Not just at HIMSS where I will be in contact with 60 thousand of my closest friends, but the airport, the hotel, the venues that I will be at with hundreds of thousands of people from everywhere in the country, many from outside the US.
Risk of exposure: Moderate - we don’t know the risk yet, but I have to put it at possible, though not yet at likely. More on that in a moment.
Impact of exposure: slight to moderate, but certainly livable and tolerable for most but not all in my home (one has asthma among other things, but age is a mitigating factor).
If I get ill, the impact on me personally is likely to be slight, my family slight to moderate (it’s harder to go to work/school if you have to go to the library/kennel/community college and can’t b/c you are under quarantine), some of that can be worked out/mitigated. For others I could be in contact with, the risk is high.
Clearly I have to talk to others in my home about this, continue to monitor, and investigate other mitigations available.
Ok, further evaluating risk of exposure after more research... number of known cases in the US is very small, < 100 (but barely, and not likely to stay that way for much longer I think). Number of actual cases is likely larger b/c the time between onset and being contagious is around a week maybe less, and there’s some issues with how many can be adequately tested. Call it less than a thousand. Transmission around health workers is lower than in average populations, likely due to paying attention to infection control.
Chance of exposure, very slight YET, but this is an ongoing situation and that could change between now and departure in a less than week.
So at present:
- Chance of exposure: very slight
- Additional mitigations: Infection control, contact reduction, reducing to minimal
- Impact of exposure: none to moderate
- If impacted: Mitigations are limited.
I’m far more likely to suffer adverse effects by listening to the recently announced keynote speaker, than COVID 19. So far, I’m still planning on attending, but that could change if the situation worsens.
— Keith
The decision has been made elsewhere. I will not be attending HIMSS this year. I'm frankly grateful for that. While I did evaluate the risk to be minimal, and was willing to attend based on that assessment, it's now a risk I simply don't need to worry about.
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